Head of the Framing Futures team, and Principal Ecologist

Office:
Thetford
Team(s):
Dispersed Threats Team
Phil is responsible for the portfolio of work in the Framing Futures team.
The focus of the team’s work is to use BTO’s science to track the impacts of, and inform responses to, future climate change, wildlife disease and other new environmental threats to the UK’s wild bird populations.
Most recently, Phil’s research has focused on using existing and new datasets to assess the impact of the outbreak of high pathogenicity avian influenza on the UK’s wild bird populations.
His other recent research has focused on:
- African-Eurasian migrant birds, such as Cuckoos;
- the restoration of wetland habitats in Belarus and Ukraine;
- the application of citizen science to a bat monitoring project in the Bailiwick of Guernsey;
- the cumulative impacts of offshore wind installations on seabirds.
Previous work has included:
- developing new methods of modelling migration routes of waterbirds and the associated risk of avian influenza incursion into the UK;
- responding to climate change in the coastal zone by understanding the issues concerning the creation and restoration of coastal wetland habitats (managed realignment);
- understanding the demographic implications of environmental change on bird populations (in particular the harvesting of shellfish);
- the extension of demographic models to estimate the total numbers of migrant birds passing through a site (turnover);
- using stable isotopes to study shorebird migration systems and the application of process-based (i.e. individuals-based) models to conservation issues.
Other Information
- Honorary Professor, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
- Editor-in-Chief, Bird Conservation International
- BSc (Hons) Ecology, University of East Anglia. 1991
- PhD The wintering ecology of Twite Carduelis flavirostris and the consequences of sea level rise, University of East Anglia. 1996
- Honorary Professor, School of Biological Sciences, University of East Anglia.
Recent BTO Publications
- Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Clewley, G., Bolton, M., Banyard, A.C., Marco Falchierie, M., Lindley, P. & Atkinson, P.W. Assessing the vulnerability of wild bird populations to high pathogenicity avian influenza 10.1080/00063657.2025.2494164 View at journal website( DOI:10.1080/00063657.2025.2494164 )
- Kirkland, M., Annorbah, N.N.D., Barber, L., Black, J., Blackburn, J., Colley, M., Clewley, G., Cross, C., Drew, M., Fox, O.J.L., Gilson, V., Hahn, S., Holt, C., Hulme, M.F., Jarjou, J., Jatta, D., Jatta, E., Mensah-Pebi, E., Orsman, C., Sarr, N., Walsh, R., Zwartz, L., Fuller, R.J., Atkinson, P.W. & Hewson, C.M. Extreme migratory connectivity and mirroring of non-breeding grounds conditions in a severely declining breeding population of an Afro-Palearctic migratory bird 10.1038/s41598-025-86484-z View at journal website( DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-86484-z )
- Atkinson, P.A., Balmer, D.E., Banyard, A.C., Duggan, J., Falchieri, M., Frost, T.M., Humphreys, E.M., Jones, R., Langlois Lopez, S., Miles, W.T.S., Murphy, M., Owens, R., Pearce-Higgins, J.W., Reid, S.M., Smith C. & Tremlett, C.J. Evaluating the use of carcass and testing data to assess the high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) related mortality in wild birds in the United Kingdom and Crown Dependencies between 2021–2023 10.1080/00063657.2025.2492902 View at journal website( DOI:10.1080/00063657.2025.2492902 )
- Johnston, D.T., Atkinson, P.W., Leech, E.I., Burton, N.H.K., Humphreys, E.M., Robinson, R.A., Blackburn, J.R., Blackburn, A.C., Brides, K., Boland, H., Burke, B., Daunt, F., Davies, J.C., Edwards, P.J., Furness, R.W., Holman, D., Redfern, C.P.F., Swann, R.L., Roper, P., Stansfield, S.D., Walsh, A.J. & Pearce-Higgins, J.W Using ring (band) recovery data to examine the impact of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) on wild bird populations 10.1080/00063657.2025.2491797 View at journal website( DOI:10.1080/00063657.2025.2491797 )
- Zalewska, K. Gilroy, J.J., Catry, I., Atkinson, P.W., Klvaňová, A. & Franco, A.M.A. European breeding bird declines associated with narrower climatic niches 10.1111/jbi.15127 View at journal website( DOI:10.1111/jbi.15127 )
- Atkinson, P.W. & Baillie, S.R. Jumping species and seasons – the spread and impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza on seabirds and waterbirds 10.1080/00063657.2025.2471626 View at journal website( DOI:10.1080/00063657.2025.2471626 )
- Atkinson, P.W. & Baillie, S.R. Responding to high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) and the conservation crisis in wild birds – where next? 10.1080/00063657.2025.2509991 View at journal website( DOI:10.1080/00063657.2025.2509991 )
- Kirkland, M., Atkinson, P.W., Aliácar, S., Saavedra, D., De Jong, M.C., Dowling, T.P.F. & Ashton-Butt, A. Protected areas, drought, and grazing regimes influence fire occurrence in a fire-prone Mediterranean region 10.1186/s42408-024-00320-9 View at journal website( DOI: 10.1186/s42408-024-00320-9 )
- Newson, S.E., Allez, S.L., Coule, E.K., Guille, A.W., Henney, J.M., Higgins, L., Mclellan, G.D., Lewis, M., Simmons, M.C. & Atkinson, P.W. Bailiwick Bat Survey: 2023 season report View at journal website( DOI: )
- Bonaldi, C., Vardanis, Y., Willemoes, M., Hewson, C.M., Atkinson, P.W., Nilsson, J-Å., Klaassen, R.H.G., Strandberg, R., Tøttrup, A.P., Howey, P.W., Alerstam, T. & Thorup, K. Recurrence, fidelity and proximity to previously visited sites throughout the annual cycle in a trans-Saharan migrant, the Common Cuckoo 10.1111/jav.03183 View at journal website( DOI:10.1111/jav.03183 )